Statistics Canada has recently released data on provincial retention rates for newcomers, both one year and five years after their arrival in Canada.

According to the report, there is an upward trend in immigrant retention rates in Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador). In contrast, the retention rates in the prairie provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba have experienced a decline.

The data is sourced from the 2022 Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB), which examines the provincial and territorial immigrant retention rate. This rate is determined by the percentage of immigrant tax filers who filed taxes in the province or territory where they intended to live in Canada, as indicated in their application for permanent residence.

The study analyzed five-year retention rates using tax filing data from 2012 to 2016, and one-year rates using data spanning 2016 to 2020.

Ontario leads in overall retention rates, with British Columbia and Alberta closely following suit. All three provinces showed retention rates exceeding 84% after five years, with Ontario boasting a remarkable 93.1% retention rate.

The study also highlights a significant drop in retention rates for newcomers in Saskatchewan and Manitoba who landed between 2012-2016. Saskatchewan experienced a 14% decrease (from 72.2% to 57.9%), while Manitoba’s rate declined by 11% (from 75.1% to 64.1%).

This declining trend is mirrored in the one-year retention rates for these provinces. Manitoba’s one-year retention rate dropped from 78.4% for newcomers admitted in 2016 to 74.9% for those admitted in 2020. Saskatchewan experienced an even sharper decline, falling from 75.7% in 2016 to 64.6% in 2020, reflecting an 11.1 percentage point drop.

On the east coast, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island reported an increase in retention rates for immigrants admitted in 2016. New Brunswick reached its highest five-year retention rate at 56%, while PEI still had the lowest retention rate in Canada at 30.9%. However, this is nearly 6% higher than the retention rate for those admitted in 2012.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the one-year retention rate grew from 55% for those admitted in 2016 to 66.4% for those admitted in 2020.

The study attributes the higher rate of retention for skilled workers in the Atlantic provinces to the launch of the Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program (AIP) in 2019. Following the AIP’s launch, Nova Scotia experienced a notable increase of 42.4 percentage points, from 21.5% in 2016 to 63.9% in 2020. New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador also saw positive increases in skilled worker retention rates.

The Atlantic Immigration Program is designed to facilitate the hiring of foreign nationals in Canada’s Atlantic provinces, offering job offers and individualized settlement plans. This program contributes to economic establishment and community connections for newcomers.

The study emphasizes the significance of retaining economic immigrants to address regional labor shortages. While most newcomers settle in large cities in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta, provinces with Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) aim to attract economic immigrants to address local workforce needs. However, the study notes a lower five-year retention rate for skilled immigrants arriving through the PNP, dropping from 79.6% in 2012 to 71.5% for 2016 admissions.

Despite this, economic immigrants arriving through the Express Entry Canadian Experience Class (CEC) or the caregiver pilot program exhibited high retention rates. For instance, caregivers admitted in 2016 had a retention rate of 94.9%, while CEC candidates had a retention rate of 88.1%.